Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.122277 0.143476 0.168066 0.198895 0.236784 0.282183 0.341227
2025-09-28 0.083344 0.105312 0.133216 0.171808 0.224668 0.295836 0.401180
2025-10-05 0.067284 0.090866 0.123409 0.172778 0.247933 0.361791 0.555054
2025-10-12 0.056748 0.081442 0.118242 0.179235 0.282309 0.458574 0.805258
2025-10-19 0.047869 0.072516 0.111887 0.182729 0.315050 0.570335 1.156067
2025-10-26 0.040959 0.065186 0.106448 0.186713 0.352068 0.712691 1.688451
2025-11-02 0.034329 0.056956 0.097663 0.182435 0.373184 0.839662 2.324350
2025-11-09 0.028493 0.048956 0.087527 0.172750 0.380187 0.943940 3.044280
2025-11-16 0.024914 0.044388 0.082925 0.173624 0.414218 1.151140 4.466342
2025-11-23 0.021936 0.040395 0.078602 0.174026 0.449059 1.398600 6.620123
2025-11-30 0.019723 0.037511 0.075995 0.178020 0.498348 1.755592 10.458159
2025-12-07 0.017745 0.034749 0.073052 0.180388 0.546063 2.176051 16.604773
2025-12-14 0.015614 0.031377 0.068193 0.176703 0.575616 2.587075 25.623221
2025-12-21 0.012959 0.026407 0.058436 0.155495 0.527827 2.543480 29.583276
2025-12-28 0.011819 0.024715 0.056574 0.158311 0.581964 3.223853 52.979951
2026-01-04 0.011006 0.023649 0.056116 0.165818 0.666051 4.341159 111.954724
2026-01-11 0.010177 0.022398 0.054886 0.170437 0.743892 5.691000 243.284052
2026-01-18 0.009449 0.021277 0.053782 0.175319 0.831834 7.538217 598.413029
2026-01-25 0.008589 0.019678 0.050924 0.172333 0.873364 9.104381 1313.571478
2026-02-01 0.007706 0.017883 0.047109 0.164041 0.875039 10.213271 2569.558391
2026-02-08 0.007160 0.016913 0.045663 0.165489 0.949700 13.112890 8916.159258
2026-02-15 0.006662 0.015997 0.044199 0.166385 1.025155 16.803502 43094.653216
2026-02-22 0.006279 0.015347 0.043475 0.170605 1.138258 22.850062 614826.245448